AGP Executive Report

Middle East Oil Shock Eases: Oil slid after Trump said a US-Iran peace deal could be signed soon, reviving hopes of Strait of Hormuz reopening and pushing Brent below $90. Markets & FX: India’s Sensex jumped and the rupee rallied 65 paise to 95.20 as crude fell; Indian bonds also firmed on the oil drop. Policy Clash on Russian Oil: Jaishankar hit back at US/Europe “on-off” sanctions, saying Washington encouraged India to buy Russian crude in 2022 and that India buys based on cost and availability. Gas & Pipelines: TANAP hit 99 bcm transported to date; CPC oil loadings rose to a May record 1.83m bpd. Clean Energy & Storage: PV Guangzhou 2026 returns with a bigger energy-storage focus; Imperial Valley’s Sugar Valley Energy project restarts local work after the sugar industry blow. Energy Security Projects: Cyprus advanced an Eastern Mediterranean energy partnership with Greece, Israel and the US, aiming to connect regional gas to Europe. Other Notables: Supreme Court blocked Alabama’s nitrogen gas execution method.

Middle East Oil Shock: Trump said the U.S. will hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT” and “assume total control” of Kharg Island, while the U.S. military disabled a third Iranian-linked tanker in the Gulf of Oman—raising fresh Strait of Hormuz risk and rattling crude and gas markets. Market Whiplash: After Trump later canceled a planned escalation, oil slid sharply and stocks jumped, showing how fast headlines are driving energy prices. OPEC Demand Cut: OPEC lowered 2026 oil demand growth again to 970,000 bpd, citing the Hormuz disruption and weaker consumption outlook. Sanctions Pressure on Energy: The U.S. sanctioned Cuba’s state oil and gas company CUPET, tightening a de facto blockade as Cuba faces severe fuel shortages. Europe Inflation Drag: The IMF cut eurozone growth to 0.9% for 2026 and warned against relaxing fiscal rules amid energy-driven inflation pressures. Utilities Under Scrutiny (US): Michigan lawmakers advanced ratepayer protections targeting utility spending and returns, as consumers stay frustrated with reliability and bills. Local Power Disruptions: Fires and downed lines at Duke Energy substations left thousands without power in Indiana. Energy Transition Policy (Canada/US): Quebec became the first Canadian province to ban energy drink sales to under-16s; New Jersey approved $79M for building retrofits with solar and battery storage.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption: The US said it has “secured” the Strait of Hormuz, while India condemned US strikes on a Palau-flagged tanker off Oman; three Indian sailors reported missing were killed after the attack on MT Settebello, and New Delhi summoned the US chargé d’affaires. Oil Market Shock: OPEC output fell to its lowest since at least 2000 as US blockade pressure squeezed Iran, while traders also weighed fresh US-Iran escalation and rate worries; oil climbed toward $95–$100 and stocks slid. Energy Security Policy: Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi will push three G7 principles—free trade, bigger strategic reserves, and producer-consumer cooperation—while South Africa drafts a policy targeting strategic fuel stocks equal to 60 days of net imports. Infrastructure & Power: Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia plant lost external power again after an attack on a substation, forcing reliance on diesel generators; Egypt issued a tender for a grid link to the Dabaa nuclear plant. Clean Energy & Efficiency: Duke Energy rolled out tools to shift household electricity use to cheaper hours, and research highlights microporous polymer membranes that could cut the energy intensity of crude refining. Project Watch: India and the UAE are working to expand strategic oil reserves toward 30 million barrels, and Australia’s Beetaloo restarted gas testing and launched new seismic work.

Middle East Energy Security: Trump says the U.S. will strike Iran again and claims “millions of barrels” have been secretly moved through the Strait of Hormuz, while CENTCOM immobilized the Palau-flagged tanker M/T Settebello for trying to transport Iranian oil. Inflation & Fuel Costs: U.S. CPI rose 4.2% in May as gas prices feed into inflation, with Trump doubling down that prices will fall when the Iran war ends. Oil Market Pressure: Reuters says Russia is cutting western crude exports in June amid drone strikes and domestic strains, while Kuwait oil prices slipped to $101.84/bbl. European Gas: Dutch and UK gas contracts edged higher as Iran-U.S. tensions persist and Norwegian supply faces maintenance. Renewables & Power Deals: MN8 Energy brought 260 MW of solar online for Microsoft; Apex sold a 28 MWdc Illinois community solar portfolio to SolAmerica. Caribbean Solar Court Fight: Curaçao’s court ordered a final decision on Otium’s solar permit, warning of a NAf 1m penalty if missed. PNG Offshore Push: TotalEnergies and PETRONAS plan PNG’s first ultra-deepwater well (Mailu-1) within two months, aiming to draw new investment.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil prices swung again as renewed US-Iran strikes raised fears for Strait of Hormuz supply, with Brent around $91 and WTI near $88 after earlier spikes; traders also pointed to US crude stock draws as a price floor. UK Cost Pressure: A UK thinktank says changing how electricity is procured could break the gas-power price link and cut household bills by about £185, after energy-market design kept costs high. Grid Connection Bottleneck Eases (UK): Britain’s system operator says more than half of clean power projects needed by 2030 can now connect, after clearing a two-year backlog. Power Demand Watch (Australia): AGL warns data centres’ rapid growth could pressure prices unless new generation is built and signed into longer-term contracts. Oil & Gas Business Moves: ADNOC is exploring Canada upstream and LNG via XRG; Tong Petrotech won a $150m Algeria oilfield services contract; SLB and Qualcomm are teaming on edge AI for energy operations. Energy Transition Hardware: Valmet will add flue-gas heat recovery and heat pumps to Estonia’s biomass district heating plant. Local Energy & Environment: Philippines authorities are responding to an oil spill after a cargo vessel ran aground off Ilocos Norte. Cooking Gas Strain (Nigeria): LPG shortages and export-heavy gas flows are pushing cooking gas prices sharply higher. Policy/Legal: A US judge permanently blocked Alabama’s nitrogen gas execution method as unconstitutional.

Oil Market Watch: Oil prices slid after Israel and Iran agreed to halt attacks for now, but analysts warn supply risks remain as Strait of Hormuz traffic is still not back to normal and OECD inventories are heading toward multi-decade lows, setting up potential price swings. Battery & Storage Boom: CATL expects battery storage to reach 50% of sales by 2030 as grids lean harder on wind and solar, while WLF Energy and Farasis Energy signed a strategic partnership to scale next-gen energy storage. Carbon Capture in the UK: Spirit Energy (Centrica) says its Morecambe Net Zero CCS project entered the NSTA “Assess Phase,” moving closer to permits to store about a billion tonnes of CO2. New Upstream Signals: QatarEnergy announced another offshore Namibia oil discovery (Merlin-1X) with light oil and limited associated gas, boosting confidence in the Orange Basin. Energy Transition Policy: Uzbekistan approved phased Zero Energy Building standards to cut gas dependency in public construction by 2040, with strict energy-efficiency rules and a roadmap starting this year. Fuel Prices at the Pump (US): GasBuddy reported average gas prices falling week-over-week in parts of Louisiana, alongside broader US declines in gasoline and diesel, though volatility tied to Middle East shipping risk persists.

Oil Markets & Geopolitics: Oman’s official crude price for August rose $2.49 to $93.38/bbl as Middle East tensions kept a supply-risk premium alive, even after Israel-Iran signaled a pause in attacks; Brent and WTI both climbed on renewed worries around the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping remains constrained. Shipping Disruption: A fire broke out on an oil tanker off Oman with 24 Indian crew safe, underscoring how quickly maritime incidents can add volatility to crude flows. EU Clean Power Support: The European Commission approved a €23bn Italian state-aid scheme to add 37.15 GW of renewables via long-term contracts for difference, aiming to help Italy hit its 2030 renewable target. Grid Resilience After Disasters: In the Philippines, Mindanao earthquake restoration is ongoing; some coal-plant units are expected back online starting Wednesday. Gas & Infrastructure Moves: New Zealand advanced plans for an LNG import facility to cover “dry-year” power risk, while India launched E85 fuel to cut oil imports via flex-fuel mobility. Energy Storage Push: Solis unveiled a broader storage portfolio at SNEC 2026, and India’s latest battery tender quietly shifts from 2-hour to 4-hour durations—signaling a move toward longer reliability. Digital Oilfield Modernisation: Oil India rolled out a digital wellhead monitoring system using industrial IoT and cloud tools to unify real-time data across dozens of sites. South Africa Power Market Reform (Opinion): A South African IPP argues electricity wheeling and storage are making offsite renewables more bankable by improving cost predictability and reliability.

Middle East Oil Shock: Fresh Israel-Iran exchanges pushed Brent and WTI higher, with Iran warning it may target regional energy infrastructure if attacks continue, keeping markets jittery around the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ Supply Call: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output by 188,000 bpd, aiming to support stability even as shipping and conflict risks cloud the outlook. Fuel Prices at Home: In the US, gasoline prices kept sliding in many areas even as global crude stayed volatile; local reports show some of the week’s lowest pump prices in multiple counties, while diesel remains higher in many places. Pipeline & Gas Exports (Africa): Algeria’s SONATRACH broke ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline section, reviving a corridor to move Nigerian gas toward Europe; Nigeria and Morocco also eye a definitive deal for the $25bn African Atlantic Gas Pipeline by end-2026. Grid & Storage Debate: Battery energy storage projects face local pushback in Vermont, even as developers argue they improve reliability and manage costs. Ukraine Power Reform: A new report says Ukraine’s wartime power survival depends on tariff and regulatory reform alongside rebuilding after major damage. US Policy & Courts: A Supreme Court decision revived a fight over Biden-era furnace rules, a reminder that natural gas policy remains a live political and legal front.

Middle East Oil Shock: Oil surged again after renewed Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon, with Brent jumping about $4 to near $97 and fears rising that the Strait of Hormuz could stay disrupted longer. Market Calm, Big Unknowns: Even as prices eased from March highs, analysts warn the “calm” is fragile because shipping risk and policy signals can change fast. OPEC+ Supply Plan: OPEC+ agreed to a fourth straight quota hike (+188,000 bpd for July), but the Strait disruption means the real market impact may be limited. Inflation Pressure: OECD headline inflation rose to 4.4% in April, while energy inflation hit 13.2%, feeding into broader cost pressures. Growth Hit: Fitch cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.4%, blaming the oil crisis, even as AI investment cushions parts of the economy. Energy Prices at Home: In India, domestic LPG prices rose by Rs 29 for a 14.2-kg cylinder, while energy stocks traded mixed as crude spiked. Regulation & Storage: Nigeria’s upstream regulators plan a single-window system to cut oil and gas fees; meanwhile, certified containerized battery storage and residential storage white papers point to faster deployment of grid and backup solutions. Energy Security Deals: DFC will back a $1.5b Indo-Pacific energy infrastructure platform focused on LNG and related assets.

Oil Market Shock: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output by about 188,000 bpd for the fourth straight month even as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, a move analysts call largely symbolic because shipping remains constrained. Kuwait Budget Strain: Kuwait’s May 2026 oil barrel averaged about $119.8—far above budget assumptions—but the Hormuz closure leaves a near disconnect between headline prices and actual export revenue, complicating fiscal planning. US Fuel Prices at the Pump: GasBuddy data for the week ending May 30 shows persistent volatility across the US, with local lows like $4.25 premium in Okmulgee County and $3.76 regular in Hopkins County, while broader drivers cite Middle East shipping risk and refinery outages. Energy Affordability Debate: New Zealand’s Winter Energy Payment is buying less warmth as it hasn’t kept pace with energy prices, with energy hardship affecting roughly one third of households. Power Utility Politics: St. Petersburg, Florida voted to study replacing Duke Energy with a city-run utility as its franchise nears expiration. Clean Energy Investment: The IEA says global energy investment is shifting toward clean, with about $2.2T expected for clean versus $1.2T for oil, gas and coal. Data Centers & Grid Demand: AWS plans a major Indiana data center campus, with a reported $1.25B payment aimed at offsetting added electricity demand on local ratepayers.

Oil Markets: Oil prices slipped as traders saw US-Iran tensions easing, with Brent at $93.09 and WTI at $90.54, though the Strait of Hormuz risk still hangs over supply. LNG & Gas: Asia spot LNG rose on stronger China/India demand and supply disruption worries, while Europe’s Dutch TTF settled at $16. OPEC+ Watch: OPEC+ meets to consider higher quotas to cool prices, but analysts say Hormuz realities mean output pledges may not move the needle. Middle East Shipping Shock: Iran’s oil exports reportedly hit six-year lows amid US naval blockade, and a longer Hormuz closure could push up global food and fertiliser costs. India LPG Pressure: India raised domestic LPG by ₹29 to ₹942 per 14.2-kg cylinder, while the petroleum ministry says households still pay far below market-linked supply costs via upstream support and PMUY transfers. Energy Security Politics: Iran’s envoy said BRICS is shaping global energy security, while Azerbaijan’s SOCAR is positioning itself as a gas buffer around Israel’s shifting supply routes. Renewables Push: The EU floated tax cuts for clean energy and more support for electrification, and the UK’s Warm Homes plan targets free upgrades for millions to cut bills.

Energy Security Diplomacy: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim says Petronas is in talks with Turkmenistan to secure access to a major gas field zone, with his personal involvement to speed negotiations ahead of a mid-June trip. Regional Oil Stockpiles: Japan plans a survey this summer of Southeast Asian public and private oil stockpiling systems, aiming to map readiness across the region. Macro Meets Oil: Fitch cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.4%, blaming an oil shock tied to US-Iran tensions that is squeezing consumption and raising business costs, even as AI and tech investment helps cushion the blow. Renewables Buildout: Zimbabwe’s Centragrid Solar Plant added 25MW to the grid, expanding supply reliability for multiple load centres after phased development from 2014 through full completion in 2024. Gas Supply Developments: Oil India reported gas in its third Andaman offshore exploratory well (Vijayapuram-3), boosting prospects for domestic production. Fuel Prices Watch (US): GasBuddy data for the week ending May 30 shows continued volatility tied to global oil risks, with localized lows reported across regular, midgrade, premium, E15/E85, and diesel markets. Oil Market Risk: Warnings persist that depleted global inventories could trigger another price shock if Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic remains hard to reopen.

Middle East Energy & Oil Prices: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said lower pump prices hinge on a resolution with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as oil markets react to Iran-related supply risks. U.S. Coal Push: Trump says $700M will go to build or refurbish coal power, using the Defense Production Act to restart and save plants, while he again attacks renewables. India Offshore Gas: Oil India reported a second natural gas discovery in the Andaman shallow offshore block, with Vijayapuram-3 confirming gas and prompting further sampling and appraisal. India Energy Security Plan: India’s Cabinet approved a ₹37,500 crore coal gasification push aimed at cutting import dependence, though economics and environmental concerns remain. Grid Reliability & Summer Demand: A PJM summer outage risk story highlights how heat and offline capacity can force emergency federal backup generation. Policy & Regulation: San Francisco sued the U.S. Department of Energy over grant conditions tied to DEI-related certifications. Renewables & Storage: Malaysia is studying an energy regulatory sandbox for 2027, while a 125 MW/500 MWh BESS project won a Letter of Award in Uttar Pradesh. Fuel Supply Disruptions: Circle K said it’s investigating reports of water-contaminated fuel at a Texas franchise station, and a separate Gas-X recall was issued over potential contamination.

Nuclear Milestone: The U.S. Energy Department says Antares Nuclear’s microreactor at Idaho National Lab reached “criticality,” a key step toward producing electricity within a few years. Grid Storage Push: Colorado officials broke ground on NextEra’s $141 million Weld Energy Center battery project, aimed at boosting reliability for nearby communities. Ukraine Energy Infrastructure Hit: Russian drone strikes damaged a gas station in Kherson, killing one and injuring five, with a fire reported. Iran Oil Pricing Twist: Iranian crude is slipping to discounts versus Brent for China-bound shipments as weaker demand from Chinese refiners offsets tighter supply from sanctions enforcement. Gas Prices Watch (US): The national regular gas average fell 17 cents to $4.22, while local reports show wide variation—Texas premium hit lows near $4.03 in Bell County, and diesel lows around $4.65 in Pike County. Renewables Under Pressure: Ireland’s High Court appointed provisional liquidators for Woodco Renewable Energy after a rescue plan relying on external investment failed.

Middle East Supply Disruption: Oman suspended crude oil loading at the Mina al Fahal terminal after an explosion near single-buoy mooring berths, reportedly linked to a suspected drone attack; traders later said some loadings resumed, but timing remains unclear. Oil Market Watch: Prices held steady after earlier swings, with Brent around $95 and WTI near $93, as stalled U.S.-Iran talks and Hormuz transit risks kept a geopolitical premium in place. Iran Sanctions Pressure: Iranian crude exports fell to a six-year low in May, with analysts citing the U.S. naval blockade and Strait of Hormuz disruption. India Macro & FX: The RBI trimmed its GDP growth forecast to 6.6% and raised inflation projections, pointing to higher crude costs; it also rolled out measures to attract foreign capital, helping the rupee rebound. Clean Energy & Grid: Inox Clean Energy agreed to buy Vena Energy India’s 6 GW renewables portfolio, while HiTHIUM unveiled an 8-hour long-duration storage system aimed at deeper renewable integration. Nuclear Buildout: Russia and Uzbekistan launched construction of Uzbekistan’s first nuclear power plant, using a hybrid Rosatom design. Local Energy Safety: A gas leak incident in the U.S. followed excavation damage to an underground line, with responders setting a safety perimeter.

AI + Data Centers: Schneider Electric says Malaysia’s next AI buildout must start with disciplined energy planning—site choice, electrical design, cooling, water management, and early access to renewables—so power stays stable as demand rises. Oil Shock Macro: Fitch Ratings warns global growth will slow further in 2026 as the US-Iran oil shock lifts inflation and squeezes demand, but says AI/IT investment is cushioning the blow, especially in Asia. Oil Market Outlook: OPEC’s Haitham Al-Ghais says it still sees robust oil demand growth of 1.2 mb/d in 2026 despite Middle East risks and Strait of Hormuz disruption. India-Venezuela Energy Ties: Modi met Venezuela’s interim president Rodriguez to expand cooperation, with India calling Venezuelan oil a major “opportunity” to support energy security. Gas Prices at the Pump (US): AAA reports the statewide average in Indiana at $3.55/gal, down week-over-week; GasBuddy spotlights local lows like $3.79 regular in Crawford County and $2.39 E85 in Matagorda County. Cybersecurity for Fuel Storage: US agencies warn attackers are targeting automatic tank gauge systems and urge owners to use strong passwords and keep devices off the internet. Energy Transition Governance (Nigeria): Nigeria’s energy commission signed MoUs with 15 partners to boost energy efficiency via innovation, research, and sustainable energy solutions. Serbia Gas Security: Serbia confirmed a three-month extension of Gazprom gas supplies and plans to expand underground storage capacity.