AGP Executive Report

Oil and Supply Risks: Crude prices hovered near $100 a barrel and remained on track for a weekly gain as Middle East tensions threatened supply through the Strait of Hormuz. September flows recovered, but uncertainty persists. Europe’s Energy Costs: EU leaders called for urgent action to curb prices and protect industry. With gas storage at record lows, the bloc is weighing incentives for larger reserves; Russian LNG imports also rose 60% in September from August. Ukraine’s Energy Grid: Russian attacks caused emergency outages affecting more than one million consumers, while Kyiv signalled it would respond to strikes on its energy facilities. Investment and Transition: EverWind announced plans for more than $10 billion in Nova Scotia, including a data-centre campus and $2 billion for wind power. Kazakhstan’s Utilities: Power generators are seeking faster tariff adjustments as gas, coal and transport costs rise.

Oil Market: Brent hovered near $105 a barrel on Friday as Middle East conflict threatens shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and tanker costs climb. The IEA’s planned release of emergency supplies has done little to ease concerns; Washington is also weighing sanctions relief for some tanker operators. Russia-Ukraine: Kyiv has resumed strikes on Russian refineries, while Russian attacks have damaged Ukrainian energy facilities and left thousands without power. The renewed strikes have sharpened tensions with President Trump, who criticized Ukraine’s move. Energy Costs: EU leaders called for coordinated, temporary steps to curb soaring prices, as households and businesses face higher fuel and heating costs. Japan, heavily reliant on imported energy, approved a plan to support marine insurance for oil and LNG shipments if foreign coverage dries up. Clean Energy: China’s wind industry is expanding its global reach, with the country accounting for nearly 80% of new offshore wind capacity installed worldwide in 2025. US Regulation: FERC proposed faster approval pathways for some LNG projects and changes to air-quality review requirements for gas projects, drawing criticism from environmental groups.

War and Energy Security: Russia’s renewed strikes have left 600,000 Ukrainians without power, as cities prepare for a potentially brutal winter. Ukraine has also resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries after the failed energy ceasefire. Supply Risks: Houthi missiles hit offices at Saudi Aramco’s headquarters, raising fresh concerns over regional oil flows. Brent topped $106 a barrel, while tanker costs have surged, adding pressure to fuel and consumer prices. Demand Outlook: OPEC expects oil demand to grow by 2.6 million barrels a day in 2027; the IEA, by contrast, sees demand falling by the same amount in 2026. Power and Investment: Sri Lanka’s solar industry warns new rules could deter rooftop investment as the country faces a possible electricity shortfall next year. Taiwan is also nearing a deal to buy up to 30% of the output from Alaska’s proposed gas pipeline.

Oil Supply Risks: Crude fell in early Thursday trading after rising on Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco and threats to shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes have heightened concerns over global fuel flows and freight costs. Winter Fuel Crunch: European gas prices reached a four-year high as storage lagged well behind its seasonal average and cold weather threatened to lift demand. Asian coal prices also hit a two-year high as utilities sought alternatives amid supply disruptions. Greenland Resources: Trump says oil and gas exploration is set to begin, but Denmark says the recent US agreement grants no special rights to extract resources and Greenland’s laws still apply. Energy Transition: Germany’s minister denies stalling renewables, even as her government dissolves a unit promoting the transition and pursues changes criticized by industry. Nuclear Safety: Britain pledged £17 million for repairs to Chernobyl’s damaged protective shelter and ventilation system, citing risks from further deterioration.

Regional Energy Ties: Saudi Arabia signed agreements with Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt spanning oil, gas, electricity and renewables, including plans to explore joint infrastructure and storage projects. Oil and Fuel Supplies: Crude prices have climbed above $100 a barrel amid Houthi attacks on Saudi energy interests and risks to Gulf shipping. The IEA cut its oil-demand outlook, while warning diesel supplies could remain tight into 2027. Ukraine’s Power Grid: Russian strikes hit power plants and other energy sites despite President Trump’s proposed ceasefire, leaving about 600,000 people without electricity and damaging oil and gas facilities. Gas Trade: Taiwan confirmed plans to buy 6 million tonnes of LNG a year from a proposed Alaska pipeline, with investment of up to $4.4 billion. Grid Reliability: The U.S. ordered emergency measures across the PJM power network as high demand, planned outages and transmission constraints threatened supply.

Hormuz Risk: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say a third oil tanker in two days was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating threats to a route vital to global crude flows. Brent rose to about $106 a barrel as traders weighed the danger against expected Russian diesel exports. Saudi-Yemen Escalation: Saudi-led strikes on oil facilities near Sanaa and Houthi threats against Aramco sites are adding to regional supply concerns; a fire was reported at an Aramco building in Dhahran. Ukraine’s Grid: Russian missiles struck Kyiv’s CHPP-4 power plant, killing one person and injuring six, despite a U.S.-announced energy truce that Ukraine says it supports. Europe’s Gas Squeeze: Record-low reserves and reduced LNG flows through Hormuz could keep gas prices high beyond this winter, with storage forecast below its five-year average. Guyana’s LNG Plans: Officials are weighing a smaller export project after Exxon said it needs more offshore gas to support oil production.

Oil and Security: Brent crude stood at $107.29 a barrel on Oct. 13, about 68% above a year earlier, as Middle East attacks and threats to oil facilities kept supply risks in focus. In Yemen, Saudi-led forces told civilians to leave a petroleum company site in Sanaa ahead of an operation. Market Outlook: OPEC forecasts global oil demand at 105.72 million barrels a day in 2026 and 108.28 million in 2027, while production outside OPEC+ is expected to rise next year. Gas Growth: Saudi Aramco aims to lift gas sales 80% by 2030, with six to seven gas and LNG facilities planned for commissioning between 2025 and 2027. Clean Power: India’s renewable generation topped 100 billion units in a quarter for the first time, though coal still supplied about two-thirds of electricity. Greece has also brought a 100-MW battery facility online to store surplus renewable power. Oil Dispute: Argentina asked an international tribunal to halt UK-authorized oil development near the Falklands, escalating a long-running sovereignty dispute.

Oil Supply Risks: Brent climbed nearly 2% to $106.65 a barrel as attacks on Saudi Arabia and threats to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz unsettled markets. Russian diesel supply offered little reassurance. Ukraine Energy Truce: Russia continued striking Ukrainian energy facilities after President Trump announced a ceasefire; Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine would observe a halt if Moscow did the same. Energy Costs: The IMF warned that prolonged conflict could keep energy prices high and volatile, with UK inflation forecasts revised upward as household bills rise. Energy Security: Pakistan is planning winter gas rationing as uncertain LNG deliveries threaten supplies, while India is urged to develop biogas from farm and municipal waste to reduce import dependence. Clean Energy: Cuba is accelerating solar development amid oil restrictions, reporting 1,418 megawatts of installed solar capacity. New Supply: Oil production has begun at Vietnam’s Lac Da Vang offshore field, expected to reach up to 25,000 barrels a day when fully developed.

Oil Markets: Brent climbed above $106 a barrel as attacks on Saudi Arabia heightened supply fears. Trump’s proposed Russian diesel deal and disputed Ukraine-Russia energy truce added volatility; Moscow has not confirmed the truce, and Kyiv says Russian strikes hit a Kharkiv power plant. European Gas: Prices face another year of pressure as storage starts the winter season well below average and disruption to LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz tightens supply. Oil Supply: Iraq raised output at the Nasiriyah field by 10,000 barrels a day after opening two wells. US Gas Infrastructure: A coalition of 26 states is backing a FERC proposal to speed approval of routine pipeline upgrades, arguing more capacity could help curb energy costs.

Ukraine Energy Truce: Trump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop attacks on energy infrastructure, but Kyiv says Russian strikes hit power plants after the announcement, and Moscow has not confirmed the deal. Washington is also reportedly threatening to suspend intelligence sharing and weapons purchases if Ukraine continues strikes on Russian energy sites. Oil Supply Risks: Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and tanker strikes near Oman and the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent above $105 a barrel, renewing fears of supply disruption. Japan plans to widen state-backed tanker insurance to cover more crude and LNG shipments. Shipping Threat: The EU warned ageing Russian shadow-fleet tankers could cause a major oil spill along European coasts, as it steps up inspections. Asia’s Energy Shift: Investors say new energy businesses in Southeast Asia struggle to secure early-stage funding, despite rising demand. In the Philippines, President Marcos renewed his push for nuclear power as electricity costs rise; Sri Lanka has commissioned a 10 MW battery storage project.

Ukraine Energy Truce: Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Kyiv will stop striking Russian oil refineries if Moscow halts attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, with reciprocal steps backed by guarantees. His offer comes amid a dispute with Donald Trump over Ukraine’s refinery strikes and a Russian diesel deal. Saudi Energy Summit: Riyadh is pressing ahead with a global energy gathering despite a Houthi attack on the capital’s airport that killed 12 and injured 309, raising security concerns for delegates. Nuclear Power: Bangladesh’s Rooppur plant cleared a key safety-test hurdle, bringing its first 1,200-megawatt reactor closer to trial grid supply, potentially as soon as next month. Supply Risks: Oil markets remain strained by Middle East conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz; tanker costs have surged, while Washington approved an emergency exchange of up to 4 million barrels from its crude reserve amid Hurricane Isaias. Clean Energy: Cape Town has launched testing of a solar-and-storage plant expected to save residents an estimated 400 million rand in electricity costs over 20 years.

Oil Supply Shock: Oil inventories are nearing critically low levels, traders warn, with a $200-a-barrel scenario possible if Hormuz shipping falters. Iran says a mine struck a supertanker in the strait, while Hurricane Isaias has shut in 72% of US Gulf oil output. Europe’s Gas Squeeze: European gas prices have climbed 167% this year, and depleted reserves are raising fresh concerns about winter supply. Russia-US Fuel Deal: Moscow says it is ready to supply oil and diesel to global markets after President Trump announced a deal for Russian diesel; Ukraine warns the sales could fund Russia’s war. Power Demand: AWS plans a 36-building data centre campus in Pennsylvania, backed mainly by a proposed 4.5 GW natural-gas plant. Clean Energy: NTPC commissioned another 66 MW section of its Kalasar solar project in India, bringing the project’s commissioned capacity to 264.72 MW.

Oil Markets: Brent gained 44 cents to $104.72 a barrel as Hurricane Isaias threatened 1.3 million barrels a day of U.S. output, while concerns over Hormuz shipping supported prices. War and Supply: Ukraine struck Russia’s Samara oil hub again, days after an earlier attack destroyed four storage tanks. Kyiv is also criticizing a reported U.S.-Russia diesel deal, arguing Russian fuel sales could help fund the war. Hormuz Shipping: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it struck a gas carrier in the strait and reported a fire; the damage has not been independently confirmed. Energy Security: Karachi is facing peak-hour power cuts as conflict disrupts gas supplies. Türkiye has begun seabed surveys for a planned 101-kilometre gas pipeline to Northern Cyprus, while Wood Mackenzie says Azerbaijan’s export infrastructure gives it a strategic edge in Caspian energy.

Hormuz Shipping Risk: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it set an LPG tanker ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz and threatened ships using routes it deems unauthorized. A separate drone attack hit a crude tanker off Sharjah; all 22 Indian crew members were reported safe, underscoring threats to Gulf energy traffic. Russian Fuel Deal: Donald Trump says Russia will supply diesel to the US and global markets, temporarily easing sanctions. Energy experts doubt the shipments will significantly lower record-high prices, while Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the deal could help finance Russia’s war. Oil and Storms: Hurricane Isaias has halted more than 70% of US Gulf oil output. Brent settled at $104.72 a barrel on Friday, with storm disruptions supporting prices even as easing Iran-war fears weighed on markets. Clean Power: Construction has begun on a 450-megawatt Arizona solar farm paired with batteries; Tesla has contracted for about 90% of its expected output. Winter Gas: European concerns are growing over a potential winter gas shortage, while Slovakia has secured supplies through a Gazprom contract.

Oil and Shipping: The Strait of Hormuz remains a major supply risk: tanker crews describe navigating in darkness to avoid attacks, while a US-to-China charter has climbed to about $80 million. Brent remains above $100 a barrel despite sharp swings. Powering AI: Data-center demand is straining grids and pipeline access; some operators are trucking in natural gas, while developers look to gas and solar for fast, steady supply. Clean Energy: Azerbaijan secured AIIB-backed grants for a Caspian green-energy corridor and offshore wind planning. Cape Town has completed a R220-million solar-and-storage plant, while Eskom is seeking partners for up to 6 GW of renewables and batteries. War and Infrastructure: Russian attacks damaged Ukrainian energy facilities, and Ukraine reported strikes on refineries in Omsk and Ukhta, underscoring winter supply and security risks. Oil Investment: Shell agreed to buy 30% of Equinor’s proposed Bay du Nord project offshore Newfoundland, ahead of a decision on the $14-billion development.

Oil Market: Brent surged above $105 a barrel as tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and Hurricane Isaias threatened supplies; prices eased after Donald Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before the US midterms. The storm has shut in about 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico output. Russia’s Oil Sector: Britain sanctioned 38 Russian oil firms, tankers and military suppliers, while a Ukrainian drone strike set fire to the Omsk refinery, one of Russia’s largest. Gas Supply: Australia expects its east coast market to have a 5–15 petajoule surplus in the first quarter of 2027, despite lower production forecasts. Clean Energy: Indonesia is pursuing a 100-gigawatt solar buildout but needs faster permitting, investment and grid upgrades; India’s wind additions are projected to reach 8 GW in FY2026–27 and rise to 13.2 GW by FY2030–31. Oil Spill: Greenpeace estimates a slick spanning about 25 square kilometers formed in the Black Sea after a tanker was struck off Sochi.